The indicators we track — and what they actually tell you
We do not send you a list of ratios; we send you a reading of them: what moved, why it moved and what should be done about it.
Liquidity — can you meet next month's obligations
Liquidity is not about profit; it is about timing. When the current ratio falls below one, short-term liabilities exceed current assets: the business has promised to pay faster than it collects. The quick ratio sharpens the question by stripping out inventory, because goods in the warehouse are an asset only until someone buys them.
Gross margin and net margin — where money is made and where it is lost
When these two margins move in different directions, the problem is located immediately. A falling gross margin means purchase prices have risen without being reflected in selling prices, or that commercial discounts have run out of control. A stable gross margin alongside a falling net margin means the problem is not the goods but operating expenses — rent, salaries, transport. Two entirely different diagnoses, calling for two entirely different actions.
Inventory, receivables and debt — the cash that sits frozen
In trade and in construction, cash is rarely lost — more often it freezes. Slow-moving inventory and customers who pay late keep capital away from the account while liabilities fall due on schedule. When days sales outstanding materially exceed days payable outstanding, the business is financing the supply chain with money it does not yet have. The debt-to-equity ratio, meanwhile, is the first thing a bank looks at: it shows how much room you have left for new financing.
Cash flow: why profit is not money in the bank
The question we hear most often is: “If I am profitable, why do I have no cash?” The answer lies in the accrual principle: revenue is recognised when the invoice is issued, not when the cash is collected, and expenses when they are incurred, not when they are paid. Profit shows the economic performance of the period — the bank balance shows something else.
There are four classic gaps. An invoice issued but uncollected raises profit without touching the account. Buying a piece of equipment empties the account immediately, but enters the result slowly, through depreciation over several years. Repaying loan principal reduces cash without being an expense at all — only the interest passes through the result. And goods bought for stock are cash gone out that sits in the warehouse as an asset.
The cash flow statement splits movements into three parts: operating, investing and financing activities. The first matters most — does the business itself generate the cash it needs, or is it being held up by borrowing and by owner injections. A business that reports profit year after year but has negative operating cash flow has a structural problem the income statement does not reveal.
Our forecasting also takes account of obligations with fixed dates, because those are not negotiable: salaries and contributions by the 15th, VAT by the 20th, and the advance instalments of profit tax on 15 April, 15 July, 15 October and 15 January. The full calendar is set out under tax deadlines; the role of the analysis is to make sure the cash is there when the date arrives.